![]() ![]() However, It’s not until just two weeks ago that the US government-mandated negative PCR tests for people flying into the country. We wanted to kill it in the egg by imposing lockouts instead of lockdowns. On January 26, 2020, we issued a warning on the Covid crisis and shortly after published a paper in Nature Physics titled ‘Tail risk of contagious diseases’ which essentially argued that there is no way to predict its future course. Tell us about your early predictions about the pandemic and takeaways for India, if any. In my book on Black Swan on page 307, I explained that because of extreme connectivity such pandemics are unavoidable. You don’ have a Black Swan when movies talk about pandemics. It’s a White Swan the fact that we didn’t have a pandemic for close to 100 years is the actual Black Swan. Was Covid the original Black Swan event for the world?Ĭovid was not a Black Swan, you don’t call something Black Swan that’s already been in the movies. ![]()
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